A stay-vs-go assessment is the single most important step before any commercial lease renewal, and most businesses skip it. In the early years of a long lease, the rate you agreed at signing may still reflect market conditions reasonably well. But as years pass and markets move, many things change. Rand volatility, GDP growth, political and policy uncertainty, rentals in a node rising or contracting, new stock coming online, demand shifting and the fixed escalation built into your lease continues to compound regardless of what is happening around you.
Most businesses do not notice this drift. They see a known monthly cost, a building that works and a contractual commitment. What they don’t see is the gap that is quietly forming between what they are paying and what a well-advised tenant in the same building, or the building next door, is paying.
When a lease renewal approaches, the most important question is not simply whether to stay or go. It is whether you have the market intelligence to make that decision properly.
The question worth asking is this: “Do you have a clear picture of what both options actually cost?”
What Happens if I Renew Without a Stay-vs-Go Assessment?
Renewing without understanding what the market is offering means making a significant long-term financial commitment without knowing whether the terms are fair, whether better alternatives exist, or what it would realistically cost to go elsewhere. Without that information, a business may be making a long-term property decision without the full context required to assess its options properly.
Illustrative example: a rate just 20% above market, escalating at 8% per year over a five-year lease term on a 5,000m² footprint, results in over R7 million in unnecessary expenditure.
5,000m² footprint · 8% annual escalation · 5-year lease term · Market base rate: R100/m²/month
|
Year |
Market Rate /m²/mo |
Your Rate /m²/mo |
Annual Market Cost |
Annual Actual Cost |
Annual Overpay |
|
Year 1 |
R100 |
R120 |
R6.00M |
R7.20M |
R1.20M |
|
Year 2 |
R108 |
R130 |
R6.48M |
R7.78M |
R1.30M |
|
Year 3 |
R117 |
R140 |
R7.00M |
R8.40M |
R1.40M |
|
Year 4 |
R126 |
R151 |
R7.56M |
R9.07M |
R1.51M |
|
Year 5 |
R136 |
R163 |
R8.16M |
R9.80M |
R1.63M |
|
5-Year Total |
R35.20M |
R42.24M |
R7.04M |
As escalation compounds, the gap widens and so does the cost of not knowing.
What Does Good Lease Advisory Look Like?
Understanding your market position before a renewal conversation begins is not a luxury reserved for large corporates. Any business occupying meaningful commercial space faces the same question: stay or go, and on what terms?
Good lease advisory starts well before the renewal date. It means running a proper stay-vs-go assessment: benchmarking your current rate against what the market is offering, understanding what comparable space in your node costs, and building a clear picture of what relocation would realistically involve, commercially, operationally and strategically. That process does not predetermine an outcome. It gives you the information to make the right one.
Galetti Corporate Services brings structure, market intelligence and independent analysis to this process, helping businesses make informed property decisions with a clear view of cost, risk and opportunity. The result is a stronger position at the negotiating table, whether the right outcome is to stay or to move.
Real-Life Case Study: Johannesburg
Our client is a multinational with brands distributed across more than 150 countries and listed on multiple major stock exchanges globally.
Their building houses the regional leadership team, support functions, and operational management for a 12-country business.
For a business of this scale and complexity, the question of whether to stay or relocate is never straightforward. The financial and operational implications of each path are significant, and a decision of this consequence requires a clear, structured view of both options before any direction is set.
The client mandated Simon Wilkins and Justin Thom of Galetti’s Corporate Services team to run a balanced stay-vs-go assessment, providing independent market intelligence and a structured comparison of the commercial, operational and strategic implications of both remaining in their current premises and relocating to an alternative property.
A Request for Proposal process was run across the market to ensure that relocation options were properly tested and assessed on their own merits. Every candidate was evaluated across costs, operational fit, location and commercial terms, and compared directly against the existing premises. Both scenarios were seriously considered throughout the process.
Ultimately, the client elected to remain in their current premises on an improved commercial structure. This decision was made with a clear understanding of the available relocation options and the benefits of staying, not as a foregone conclusion, but as the outcome of a thorough and independent assessment.
Key Takeaways
This case is a useful illustration of what good occupier advisory looks like in practice. Both staying and relocating were genuinely on the table. The value Galetti provided was not in steering the outcome, but in making sure the client had a complete and accurate picture of what each path would actually involve.
A structured stay-vs-go process changes the nature of every conversation that follows. When a business understands its options with precision, decisions are made on the right basis and the right outcome tends to follow.
If your lease renewal is approaching and you have not yet asked “what does the market actually look like right now?” that is the place to start.
Deal led by Simon Wilkins and Justin Thom, Galetti Corporate Real Estate. For head office strategy and lease advisory, contact Corporate Services at corporateservices@galetti.co.za
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